What Data Should You Be Following to Understand COVID-19 in North Carolina?
Update for Oct. 14, 2020:
Unfortunately, North Carolina continues to see our COVID-19 metrics trend up. For the past two weeks, we’ve seen increases in all of the seven-day rolling averages we’ve been watching — new positive cases, the daily number of deaths, and hospital bed capacity.
It’s unclear what is leading to increases in deaths and new positive tests. Dr. Mandy Cohen, the secretary for the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services, has also not offered any details for what could have led to the increases. What is clear though, is that our state’s hospitals still have capacity, and at the moment, it doesn’t sound like they’re going to be overburdened by these increases.
While the increases aren’t staggering, they’re a reminder that we need to continue to reassess our risk of becoming infected and take the necessary precautions to remain safe as we go about our daily lives.
The seven-day rolling average of positive new cases have jumped to just over 6% after trending to 5% or lower. State officials have pinpointed 5% as the target for percent of positive tests they’d like to see in North Carolina. The seven-day rolling average of daily deaths has increased to the high 20s, and in some cases in the low 30s.
The seven-day rolling average for hospital capacity for inpatient beds is at or near 60%, and ICU capacity has been in the low 50% range. As a reminder, hospital capacity also includes other illnesses — so for example on any given day capacity could be at 70%, but only a fraction of that capacity could be due to COVID-19 patients.
We’ll continue to follow the data, where they lead us. Having this data at our fingertips allows us to make the best decisions for ourselves and our families.
On a daily basis, we’re being flooded with information and data about new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19. We need to listen and watch the signals that data tells us while also tuning out the noise.
To do that, there are three key metrics to watch:
· The seven-day rolling average of the percentage of new positive COVID-19 tests
· The seven-day rolling average of daily death numbers
· The seven-day rolling average of hospital capacity
We’re committed to using clearly sourced data, no matter what story they tell us — good, bad, or ugly. We need to watch it all so you can make informed decisions about returning to school or visiting loved ones who are at a higher risk for contracting COVID-19.
All of this data is publicly available through the COVID Tracking Project or the Department of Health and Human Services dashboard. These are tools you can use.
The graphs below help cut through the noise of the daily headlines talking about “records” or “increased cases.” We need to know what the state is facing without the noise of social media. Just the facts.
Seven-day rolling average of the percentage of new positive COVID-19 tests
Why is this important? This number gives us a signal of how the virus is spreading in North Carolina. It’s a clear way for us to understand the trends of positive cases in the state while cutting through the headlines about increased testing.
NOTE: On Aug. 12, NCDHHS announced that 221,444 tests were mistakenly added to the total of North Carolina’s tests. The tests did not impact the total number of positive tests but did impact the cumulative total of tests conducted. After doing an analysis of the corrected data and what had previously been reported, the 7-day rolling average did not shift substantially. That is one of the reasons why the 7-day rolling average is such an important metric. It allows us to see beyond any mistakes in the data.
Seven-day rolling average of daily death numbers
Why is this important? Watching this number gives us a sense of just how lethal the virus strain is and whether our efforts are helping or hurting. This, at times, can be a lagging indicator as deaths take time to be reported and investigated. According to DHHS, death data for the last two weeks may not be reported yet, which is data for that time period can fluctuate.
Seven-day rolling average of hospital capacity
Why is this important? Watching hospital capacity gives us a look at how serious cases are and if our hospitals are going to be overtaxed. One of the reasons Gov. Cooper shut down the state earlier this year was because he and Secretary Cohen were concerned that COVID-19 would overtake our hospitals. The concern was so great that eventually they put up additional triage spaces and make-shift hospitals to increase capacity. We never maxed out the hospitals. We know the most serious cases of COVID-19 end up in the hospital. But, capacity doesn’t capture only COVID cases, capacity is for ALL hospitalizations, including COVID patients.
This data will continue to change as the pandemic continues. That means we’ll continue to update these stats as we go along and add additional metrics we think are important. Please check back here a couple of times a week to see where North Carolina stands. If you have other key indicators that you’re watching, please share and let us know.
