What Data Should You Be Following to Understand COVID-19 in North Carolina?

This week, we’re beginning to see a slight uptick on the 7-day rolling average positivity rate for tests. While it was below 7% for the past few weeks, but it is tending toward 7% again. However, except for the spike in recent days, that rolling average has remained steady.

But that doesn’t mean we should drop everything we’re doing and celebrate. The virus is still out there. We’re still seeing the 7-day rolling average of daily deaths stay in the 20s, and we continue to see new clusters in congregate living facilities with colleges starting up.

We’ll keep watching, but we wanted to provide this update.

On a daily basis, we’re being flooded with information and data about new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19. We need to listen and watch the signals that data tells us while also tuning out the noise.

To do that, there are two key metrics to watch:

· The seven-day rolling average of the percentage of new positive COVID-19 tests

· The seven-day rolling average of daily death numbers

We’re committed to using clearly sourced data, no matter what story they tell us — good, bad, or ugly. We need to watch it all so you can make informed decisions about returning to school or visiting loved ones who are at a higher risk for contracting COVID-19.

All of this data is publicly available through the COVID Tracking Project or the Department of Health and Human Services dashboard. These are tools you can use.

The graphs below help cut through the noise of the daily headlines talking about “records” or “increased cases.” We need to know what the state is facing without the noise of social media. Just the facts.

Seven-day rolling average of the percentage of new positive COVID-19 tests

Why is this important? This number gives us a signal of how the virus is spreading in North Carolina. It’s a clear way for us to understand the trends of positive cases in the state while cutting through the headlines about increased testing.

NOTE: On Aug. 12, NCDHHS announced that 221,444 tests were mistakenly added to the total of North Carolina’s tests. The tests did not impact the total number of positive tests but did impact the cumulative total of tests conducted. After doing an analysis of the corrected data and what had previously been reported, the 7-day rolling average did not shift substantially. That is one of the reasons why the 7-day rolling average is such an important metric. It allows us to see beyond any mistakes in the data.

Seven-day rolling average of daily death numbers

Why is this important? Watching this number gives us a sense of just how lethal the virus strain is and whether our efforts are helping or hurting. This, at times, can be a lagging indicator as deaths take time to be reported and investigated. According to DHHS, death data for the last two weeks may not be reported yet, which is data for that time period can fluctuate.

This data will continue to change as the pandemic continues. That means we’ll continue to update these stats as we go along and add additional metrics we think are important. Please check back here a couple of times a week to see where North Carolina stands. If you have other key indicators that you’re watching, please share and let us know.